Project Management Assignment: Risk Analysis & Mitigation Plan for Future Frigates

Question

Task: Prepare a project management assignment report analyzing the project of Future Frigates (War Ships) initiated by Australian government. Your report should consist of:

A. Project overview
B. Risk Analysis
C. Risk Mitigation Plan

Answer

Project Overview for Project Management Assignment
The Australian government's Naval Shipbuilding Plan, discharged in May a year ago, plots the administration's vision for the Australian maritime shipbuilding endeavor and the huge venture required in coming decades, and has been touted by the legislature as a critical lift for occupations and development in Australia. A review of the $89 billion program found the administration neglected to give adequate hazard appraisal of the plans, and at times neglected to give money saving advantage examination of undertakings before endorsement, regardless of Defense notice of "outrageous" chance in building a portion of the boats or submarines. The report cautions the tasks could bring about huge expense over-runs and deliver major reputational harm on the Defense division and the government. The review, composed by Auditor-General Grant Hehir, says: "After some time, Defense has instructed the administration regarding the high to extraordinary dangers the shipbuilding programs present.

The workplace additionally communicated worries that in not dealing with the program chance, Defense was confronting "the expansion of administration of the Armidale and Anzac Class ships, and the Collins Class submarines, and the related expenses and impacts on maritime ability".

Among various tasks in the arrangement, the report explicitly focuses to the administration's choice to quicken the timetable of the Future Frigate program to empower a 2020 development start. The Hunter-class frigate is primarily considered as the future class of frigates for the Royal Australian Navy (RAN) which will replace the Anzac-class. Development is relied upon to start in 2020, with the first of nine vessels to be rolled into the administration, most probably, in 2020s mainly around the second half of the year.Thishunter-class frigate will be an Australian variety of the Type 26 class frigate that is expected to be worked by the Royal Navy from the month of May- June in year 2020. The class is expected to have an 8,800-ton (8,700-long-ton; 9,700-short-ton) full burden removal and will be around 150 meters (490 ft) long. It is also to be noticed that the vessel will be loaded for cruising more than 27 bunches (50 km/h; 31 mph) and is expected to cover around 180 group and it surely will do that, as per the latest standards and expectations which is relieved by the administration and the authorities.

The vessel will have the option to use and upliftat-least one MH-60R ASW helicopter and can have other Australian airplane, for example, the MRH90 helicopter. This project will be worked by BAE Systems Australia at Osborne Naval Shipyard. Conveyance of the main frigate is foreseen in the mid-2020s.

Overall budget and rationale
The budgetary requirement for the future frigate allocated is $35bn AUD for the life of the future frigates program. The total plan is 9 frigates for Australia into its future warfare advancements for navy. Overall budget is $35 billion AUD allocated into the program(Bergmann, 2019).

The benefits of the program are that it will improvise the warfare capabilities of the hunter class frigates introduced for future navy the combat management system. These futuristic ships will engage threat missiles even at a longer range. It is vital for the navy considering the rogue states which are in development of missiles that can reach larger distances at advanced speed capabilities. However, the drawbacks are also to be considered(Goldsmith, 2016). There are certain problems that delay the construction of the frigates namely interim capabilities, cost issues, and anticipated construction tenure. There is a large gap in terms of production capability considering the delay in the current year, and slow construction process. This will be further delayed because the project’s current target is 9 ships over 18 years and is moving slower than expected.

Key statistics, scope, size, and estimated cost
The project is in pre-phase 1 and construction elements are setup for major acquisition. Materials and analysis are provided by RAND Corporation. The total cost of the project life is estimated at $35 billion AUD. The scope of the project extends to a period of at least 25 to 30 years as anticipated for the future. The project size will be vast and it will further expand to possibilities of three other design, and build options for the frigates. These are namelyMilitary Off-the-Shelf, Evolved MOTS, and, New Design. It will provide increased possibilities considering the phases of the program(Bergmann, 2019). The budget estimate is planned at 35 bn for the entire life of the proposed future frigates project.

Project duration &, Key construction elements
The time taken to complete the construction of the hunter class frigate is 18 to 24 months for one frigate. The overall estimated continuity if the project is 25 to 20 years considering future advancements in the future warfare(Goldsmith, 2016).

The key construction elements include:

• AEGIS combat system
• 48-cell and 24-cell banks of the Mark 45 Mod 4 Dual-Purpose
• Vertical Launch Systems
• Turreted 5" deck gun
• 20mm Gatling-style Close-In Weapon System
• Structural dimensions – 492 * 67 feet
• Displacement – 9700 ton under full load
• CODLOG arrangement
• 27 knot speed (Bergmann, 2014).

Environmental costs/benefits
The frigates developed are adapted to the future naval environment. The main environmental benefit is sound environmental management in the royal Australian navy. It is the key environmental advantage derived from the future frigates program. RAND Corporation is adhering to the sound management under proper guidance from Sydney Harbor Base. The cost of impacting the environment and other contamination clean-up programs are eliminated with the future frigates(Bergmann, 2014).The program is a new step to environmental stewardship.

Funding mechanisms& key stakeholders
The funding is from the government. Commonwealth government retains the sovereign share in project. The complete ownership is taken at end of the project schedule. There are also certain investments made in supply chain of the project seeing to the shipbuilding. The key stakeholders identified are the Commonwealth Government, Royal Australian Navy, BAE Systems, BlueScope Steels (steel supplier for the project), Fincantieri, Navantia, and Australian Department of Defence(Goldsmith, 2016).

Risk Analysis
Hazard Analysis is a demonstrated way that distinguishes and evaluates the components or occasions that could contrarily influence the accomplishment of a venture. It permits the assessment of dangers that the association may face and causes you choose whether or not to push ahead with an arrangement. Through a hazard Analysis, you will recognize dangers, and gauge the probability of those dangers being figured it out. When the dangers have been recognized, it' essential to search for approaches to oversee them: stay away from the dangers; share the dangers; acknowledge the dangers or control the dangers.

PMBOK's frameworks the accompanying in regards to chance administration:

1. Plan hazard the board
2. Identifyrisks
3. Do regular examination and scrutiny of the risks.
4. Do quantitative risks assessments
5. Do and analyze the reactions of different risks
6. Implement hazard reactions
7. Monitor dangers

Numerous techniques and applications for oceanic transportation chance examination have been introduced in the writing. In equal, there is an ongoing spotlight on essential issues in chance examination, with calls for heightened inquire about on major ideas and standards fundamental the logical field. This paper presents an audit and examination of hazard definitions, viewpoints and logical ways to deal with chance investigation found in the sea transportation application zone, concentrating on applications tending to inadvertent danger of delivery in an ocean region. For this reason, an order of hazard definitions, a diagram of components in chance viewpoints and a grouping of ways to deal with chance investigation science are applied. Results uncover that in the application region, chance is firmly attached to likelihood, both in definitions and viewpoints, while elective perspectives exist. A diffuse circumstance is additionally found concerning the logical way to deal with chance examination, with pragmatist, proceduralist and constructivist establishments coinciding. Pragmatist approaches rule the application region. A few proposals are made to improve the present circumstance, expecting to fortify the logical reason for chance examination.

Hazard examination techniques for oceanic transportation have gotten a developing enthusiasm for late years, even to the degree that universal associations have given proposals on the utilization of explicit hazard investigation and the executive’s instruments. In equal, there is an ongoing spotlight on essential issues in logical situations worried about hazard investigation, with calls for escalating research on issues, for example, applied wording, standards and points of view for breaking down and overseeing hazard . Noting these calls, this paper gives an audit and investigation of hazard examination applications tending to the incidental danger of sea transportation in an ocean region, considering some basic issues as planned in. A differentiation is made between the study of hazard investigation (concerning ideas, standards, strategies and models for breaking down hazard) and the act of hazard examination (concerning explicit applications). Specifically, the applied hazard definitions, the points of view for portraying hazard, and the logical way to deal with chance investigation as an instrument for supporting dynamic are in center. This recognizes the present work from late survey papers as just insignificant consideration is given to the structure and substance of the techniques. Or maybe, the techniques and applications are investigated on a significant level, concentrating on some hazard theoretic establishments. The exploration centers around giving knowledge into which chance hypothetical establishments the sea transportation zone has received, planning to encourage further reflections and conversations inside the oceanic research network. In this way, the paper plans to help the call by Aven and Zio, explicitly in the oceanic transportation application region. The protected route of boats, particularly in tight delivery conduits, is of most extreme worry to the oceanic specialists. A few boat crash mishaps have excited the consciousness of scientists and sea specialists. Quantitative hazard evaluation (QRA) model for delivery conduits, up to this point, has appreciated a developing enthusiasm for as far back as in the recent past years. This paper provides and presentsa sketch of a model which is called as QRA models created for oceanic conduit, which has the inclusive property of waterways, bays, and narrows. As indicated by International Maritime Organization (IMO) report (1, 2), there are a lot of features which needs to be highlighted as described below:

Hazard: There is a risk of this event happening or occurring again.

Mishap: an occasion including casualty, injury, transport misfortune or harm, other property misfortune or harm, or natural harm.

Result: result of a mishap.
Recurrence: A huge demonstration of large section of events which is happening frequently and at regular intervals of time (for example every month or year or half yearly). Danger: There are quite chances and the expectations to risk human life,wellbeing, property and the useful nature. And this has to be prevented.

Crash: striking or being struck by another boat, whether or not under way, secured or secured. This classification does exclude striking submerged wrecks.

Contact: There are a large number of objects which came into contact with the large warfare ships and which need to be coated.

Establishing: Items which needs to be addressed or which might be touching the ocean floor and which regularly needs attention.

Fire: Have to find out the occurrences in which fire is the main occasion.

Blast: occurrences where blast is the underlying occasion. Non-unplanned auxiliary disappointment (NASF): situations when the frame presents splits and breaks, influencing boat's fitness for sailing. As indicated by the writing, we found,and it is evident that the QRA models can be categorized into two segments: mishap recurrence (or likelihood) analyze and result investigation. This segment gives a point by point audit of the recurrence estimation models just as their qualities and shortcomings. This is trailed by concentrates on result estimation, Discussions and proposals, concluding comments.

Most boat mishap recurrence models are led for assessing transport impact (or establishing) recurrence in a particular water region.

Risk Mitigation Plan
In spite of the fact that the system of sea chance appraisal has been very much evolved, there are couple of issues which are still of concern. One significant issue is the means by which to measure the impact of human mistakes. Reports and incidents clearly indicate that about maximum percentage of crashes happen as there is a notification of human blunders (86) and it is considered as the main factor for most of the mishaps which are happening in these transportation mishaps. As per IMO, it clearly recommended direction on Human Reliability Analysis (HRA), finite nonexclusive instruments, for example, Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP) and Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) were proposed to be embraced in oceanic mishap HRA. Be that as it may, not many of the literature or review works have been distributed after the above directions which have been taken by HRA. Demonstrating human defects or errors is as yet testing in an oceanic hazard appraisal undertaking, and future research is profoundly wanted. It is additionally of extraordinary need for sea specialists to gather close to miss and human mistake information like those gathered in the flight space. The other issue is the manner by which to address the parameter vulnerabilities. In light of the previously mentioned approaches, the hazard appraisal is controlled by an assortment of information 32 parameters, for example, hydrographical condition, transport stream attributes, navigational circumstance, and so forth. It is all around recognized that vulnerability is an unavoidable segment in the hazard appraisal method. Moreover, absence of information would cause troubles for hazard evaluation with parameter vulnerability. The vulnerability spread issue in sea transportation frameworks has been tended to by GWURPI-VCU group (17, 43, 87). The Bayesian reenactment method is applied to spread vulnerability all through the investigation and the contextual analysis indicates clearly that the outcomes is expected to be vigorous to inborn vulnerabilities, which has been directed to chance appraisal for the Australian State Ferries and ship administration developments in differentbays by the gathering. It is of extraordinary importance of leading contemplates joining the procedure, which is as expected, with similar or differentrisk evaluation models.

References;
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832015000356 https://researchrepository.griffith.edu.au/bitstream/handle/10072/47703/77575_1.pdf?sequence=1

Bergmann, K. (2014). Future frigate capability debate. Asia-Pacific Defence Reporter (2002), 40(8), 44. Bergmann, K. (2019). Future frigates combat system-Have the rules changed?. Asia-Pacific Defence Reporter (2002), 45(4), 10. Goldsmith, S. (2016). SEA5000 CEP: Critical capability considerations for the future frigates.

IMO, Guidelines for Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) for use in the IMO rule-making process. 2002, International Maritime Organization: London

IMO, Formal Safety Assessment FSA-Crude Oil Tankers.2008,Project management assignment International Maritime Organization.

Macduff, T., Probability of Vessel Collisions.Ocean Industry, 1974. 9(9): p. 144-148.

Fujii, Y., H. Yamanouchi, and N. Mizuki, Some factors affecting the frequency of accidents in marine traffic. II: The probability of stranding, III: The effect of darkness on the probability of stranding. Journal of Navigation, 1974. 27: p. 239-252

https://www.defence.gov.au/CASG/EquippingDefence/SEA%205000%20Phase%201.asp https://www.defence.gov.au/casg/Multimedia/Hunter_Class_FFG_Fact_Sheet-9-9243.pdf

https://www.defence.gov.au/casg/Multimedia/GCSInfographic-9-9233.pdf