Risk Management Assignment: Utilising Process-Based Alternative for Road Transit Systems

Question

Task: Task Summary –
The case study shown below provides an overview of Road Transit Systems (RTS) - a specialist preventative vehicle maintenance program operator in NSW, Australia. A number of attributes have been provided in the case study to give the reviewer (i.e., you as student) the opportunity to draw on material and construct a response that is relevant to the information provided (in the case study). Reference to the case study is required for ALL three assessments and your critique of the case study will differ across ALL three assessments. For Assessment, the Managing Director of RTS has assigned you as Project Engineer to consult with other RTS interested parties to complete a risk management analysis and evaluation by initiating a technological risk management report. To ensure that the report is relevant to RTS’s context and risk environment, you (as Project Engineer) will identify TWO significant process-based risks as prioritised and listed in the Risk Register (assessment 2). You are to draw upon the data provided in ALL six modules and provide discussion in the form of a group Technological Report of 2,500 words (+/- 10%) as to why these risks are significant for the organisation.

This discussion will also include the application, analysis and evaluation of TWO significant processbased risks using the following technological risk sequencing and evaluation techniques (A and B)

A) Using a Decision Tree Analysis (DTA) answer the following questions:
I. What is the decision that must be made;
II. Identify two process-based significant risks (Option A and Option B);
III. Identify two expected scenarios that focus on the risk’s use of controls with each of these options (an opportunity scenario with the use of risk controls and a deviation away from objectives due to use of risk controls) and the likelihood of each scenario;

IV. determine an expected outcome for each of these scenarios Upon completion of the decision tree analysis you should identified the best outcome given the decision made.

B) Using the same process-based risk or an alternative (as per level of significance and priority identified in the risk register) apply an Event Tree Analysis (ETA) to determine the functioning/not functioning of the risk controls to mitigate this risk’s consequences. Your lecturer/facilitator will be able to assist in formulating your response.

Context
Case Study: Road Transit Systems (RTS) Preventative Maintenance Program (PMP)
Mission Statement
The Maintenance Department’s mission is to provide safe, clean, reliable, and comfortable vehicles effectively and efficiently for use by its customers and operators.

Preventative Maintenance Program (PMP)
The emphasis of Road Transit Systems (RTS) vehicle maintenance program is preventive rather than reactive maintenance. A strong preventive maintenance program effectively reduces overall maintenance costs by decreasing the number of road calls and the high cost of unpredictable repairs caused by reactive maintenance. RTS program uses a graduated preventative maintenance program (PMP) that is based on the manufacturer’s recommendations and modified based on experience and the local conditions they deal with in regional NSW, Australia. Solid PMP practices maximise useful life, are cost efficient over the life of the vehicle, and ensures that all vehicles remain in safe operating condition.

RTS has an aggressive preventive maintenance program that also schedules bus inspections based on a variety of categories. A PMP schedule is developed for each type or group of vehicles they operate. The PMP schedule established is based upon usage and vehicle type. The schedule is progressive. Each successive PMP includes a higher level of maintenance inspection activity. Vehicles are inspected based on mileage and time. In addition, each vehicle receives an annual comprehensive inspection. RTS staff continually review their maintenance practices to identify potential improvements to the program. This assures optimum benefits from the scheduled inspections. Engine oil analysis is an integral part of the inspection program. Oil analysis occurs differently for different fleet types. Some are based on mileage or hours operated. The purpose is for early identification of unusual engine wear thereby, acting to prevent catastrophic engine failures.

On-time inspection variance
The allowable variance with all preventive maintenance inspections is a minus 500 miles to a plus 500 miles. Any inspection completed within this parameter is considered on time. Each sub-fleet of vehicles has its own specific PMP schedule.

Local Conditions
Local conditions have a direct impact on the level of PMP needed. RTS provides service throughout regional Australia. The following conditions are considered when developing a PMP program for a vehicle or group of vehicles:

• Service Design;
• Urban Service – Fixed route and complimentary paratransit service. Due to the frequency of the stops and traffic congestion in the urban area, vehicles used for this service require a higher level of PMP;
• Rural Area – Route deviated service. Infrequent stops in a long distance corridor;
• Topography – Regional NSW, Australia covers a large area including agricultural land, commercial and rural towns and communities. The terrain is fairly flat. However, poor road conditions in some parts may cause premature ware on certain vehicles. Those parts are inspected more frequently than the manufacturer recommends;
• Weather – Regional NSW experiences inclement weather. However, the average rainfall is approximately 400 cm per year.

Local Policies
The RTS Board requires that all vehicles be equipped with cloth seats for the passengers. This type of seat is more difficult to clean and therefore is more costly to maintain.

• Cleanliness – All vehicles must be cleaned daily;
• Graffiti – All graffiti must be removed within 24 hours.
Authorise, Direct, and Control Maintenance Activities and Costs
The Maintenance Manager is responsible for developing the PMP schedule for each vehicle fleet and ensuring that all PMP activities are completed in a timely manner and consistent with the manufacturer’s recommendations. Throughout the PMP and repair process the tasks performed by maintenance staff are under constant review by the Maintenance Department management and staff. This constant review is designed to ensure that review and decisions are made at the proper level of management.

Each day the Maintenance Manager prints and reviews the PMP Tracking report to identify which vehicles are due or coming due for Preventative/Preservation Maintenance. The identified vehicles are removed from service and scheduled for work. The work is then assigned to a Preventative Maintenance Technician who performs the PMP and completes the appropriate PMP inspection form. The technician is provided with complete instructions on how to perform the PMP and is required to follows those instructions to completion. Very minor repairs such as light bulbs and the securing of fasteners etc. are done during the PMP process. RTS maintains separate PMP inspection process for specific component systems such as wheelchair lifts, HVAC systems, and fare collection systems. These component systems each have their own PMP schedules, forms, and tracking reports. A maintenance supervisor is charged with the task to review the tracking reports and generates the work orders to perform the tasks. Other needed repairs may be identified during the PMP inspection. These are referred to as “PMP write ups”. In addition, drivers may report vehicle problems. The Supervisor and/or the Lead person review the PMP write-ups and driver reports. The repairs are then scheduled into the repair shop, assigned to a mechanic and completed before the bus returns to service. A separate work order is issued for this type of repair.

Identify, Track, and Record Maintenance Activities and Costs:
RTS uses a system of manual and computerized forms and reports to schedule and perform preventative/preservation maintenance (PMP) and repairs to its fleet of vehicles. These documents include:

• Work orders;
• Service orders;
• Purchase orders;
• Parts requests;
• PMP Tracking report;
• PMP Inspection forms (these vary based on type of vehicle and level of PMP to be performed)

Risk Management Assignment Task Instructions –
To complete this assessment, you will identify TWO significant process-based risks as prioritised and listed in the Risk Register (Assessment 2). You are to draw upon the data provided in ALL six modules and provide discussion in the form of a Technological Report of 2,500 words (+/- 10%) as to why these risks are significant for the organisation.

Technology Report criteria:
Refer to the Case Study. Take into account ALL of the case’s context;
1. Identify TWO significant process-based risks as prioritised and listed in the Risk Register (Assessment 2);
2. Provide discussion as to why they are deemed as significant;
3. Use the following technological risk sequencing and evaluation techniques (A and B) to further this discussion:

A. Adopt a Decision Tree Analysis (DTA) approach and answer the following questions:
i) What is the decision that must be made;
ii) Identify two significant Process-based risks (for Option A and Option B);
iii) Identify two expected scenarios that focus on the risk’s use of controls with each of these options (an opportunity scenario with the use of risk controls and a deviation away from objectives due to use of risk controls) and the likelihood of each scenario;
iv) determine an expected outcome for each of these scenarios

B. Using the same process-based risk or an alternative (as per level of significance and priority identified in the risk register) apply an Event Tree Analysis (ETA) to determine the functioning/not functioning of the risk controls to mitigate this risk’s consequences. Your lecturer/facilitator will be able to assist in formulating your response.

Answer

Introduction
Road Transit System programs can be a set of activities and operation being carried out in a systematic manner with involvement of infrastructural and technological development to facilitate better roadways services. The two chosen risks for this assignment are ‘Advancing Technology’ and ‘Cyber Attacks on Physical Assets’ for Decision Tree Analysis. The other two risks that have been chosen are ‘Deteriorating Infrastructure’ and ‘Shortage of Drivers’ for Event Tree Analysis. By the end of the paper, one could get complete overview and understanding about these risks from the cause-and-effect perspective.

Risk: Advancing Technology
The risk with the introduction of new advancing technologies such as sending your fully automatic vehicles is a network of information. This name means the vehicles which are semi-automatic or fully automatic have to always be connected with some kind of network or their influence. For example, every Tesla vehicle is connected to the Starlink satellite. Such kind of infrastructure or network amalgamation for GPS tracking is prone to cyber transit hazards. There are other risks along with cyber risks such as the need for improved security and prices of driving cars which will dissipate the control over the vehicle (Pal, et al. 2017).

Implications of Risk
The biggest implication of risk in advancing technology is that the control of humans will decrease over time and artificial intelligence will take over. This will create a lack of ability as well as control over the activities incorporated by these modern devices. First of all, privacy and anonymity will be compromised. Most of the transportation in supply chain activities carried out by these autonomous vehicles will become prone to risk and technological implications in creating fluctuations in the market.

Expected Scenarios (Two)
Two exemplary scenarios that can be comprehended regarding the situation can be -
Scenario 1: Suppose a person is driving an automatic vehicle and he has set a destination. The automatic vehicle was based on the concept of sensors by identifying the lines and end of roads or any other object in the path and working according to that. What if it fails to identify any particular thing which might cause an accident or if there is the absence of line then the vehicle might drive off the road. That's why more advanced than highly sophisticated infrastructure is required to facilitate automatic vehicle Scenario 2: All the data of GPS activities as well as details and recordings of the vehicle being uploaded to the website or server. What if somebody has the system and accesses that information and misuse it. That's why the company must ensure to follow up several strategies to prevent the data of consumers from getting used.

Expected Outcome
The expected outcome of advancing technology is to facilitate more and more facilities to the people at the same time there are several risk factors associated with. The world is already becoming disturbed so cybercrime and artificial intelligence is something everyone is living with. The important notion about understanding the risk is to develop infrastructure or software that facilitates supported parameters for the vehicles or other security systems.

Decision Tree Analysis
Considering a scenario from our perspective of decision tree analysis can begin from the court topic advancing technology. It can have two children, which is a facility and risks. The side of the facility provides services and necessary implications that makes road transit easy. The side of risk can be associated with sub-children such as cyber risk, road accidents, supply chain, etc. By following the advancing technology to the side of the risk and specifying the respective risk titles for cyber security, the decision of inculcating highly security measures in the program is made and the same goes for the other two leaves of the tree.

Risk: Cyber Attacks on Physical Assets
The risk of cyber-attacks on physical assets can be quite prominent on fresh fruits or newly developed road systems. If the security measures are not tiring and less information is available about the system and the region then the hackers can exploit information for their own benefit. Any physical asset left wonderful or in a state where it can be easily accessed by hackers is a big threat that must be cautiously thought of and strategies to prevent it from happening (Mineo, et al. 2017).

Implications of Risk
The implication of cyber threats on intelligent transport systems is quite prevalent and will be seen in the future. The possibility of developing smart roads so that an intelligent transport system can be facilitated is very near in the future but everything is required to be stored and developed in some kind of device for infrastructural tools. These tools will contain technological software and smart systems that will facilitate services to physical infrastructure. They will be prone to attacks of several kinds and family cyber-attacks because one could control a whole lot of area or set of devices causing trouble of multiple kinds.

Expected Scenarios (Two)
The two sceneries that can be thought regarding the situation are -
Scenario 1: the vehicles are considered as physical assets which have their own software for automation and smart recognition systems. If somebody gets access to this vehicle through a network or by any other means then they can remote control it and cause havoc. The same goes for the transportation vehicles which would contain goods and materials and once had can be driven off far away from the destination. Scenario 2: Surveillance is one of the biggest infrastructure developments in the road transit system. If somebody hacks into the server of surveillance cameras, they can manipulate the progress in a crime or any activity being carried out on the road.

Expected Outcome
The expected outcome of both scenarios is loss of infrastructure as well as a disturbance on multiple levels. This will not only fascinate and support crime but also provide necessary measures to cover it up. That's why with the development of infrastructure and modernizing vehicles, it is very important to develop and implement highly sophisticated and secure network infrastructure so that it cannot be easily or never be hacked. The engineers and security developers must think about developing something that is not penetrable or if somebody X then they can be easily and quickly identified.

Decision Tree Analysis
Considering the process of understanding and making a decision, in this case, using decision tree analysis will start from the objectivity of cyber-attacks on physical assets. The next parameter will be possibilities of attack that is if a mobile vehicle or a stationary system has been caught by hackers. The next level of tree will contain the parameter of ongoing activity after the hack that can be illegal or crime in progress. The next step will be in the tree to decide the action that is specifically needed to take against this whole act that is to inform the police or to inform a security agency to prevent it from happening and seek the culprit.

Risk: Continuing Driver Shortage
The continuous shortage of drivers is a risk as well as an opportunity. It is an opportunity for the companies who are thinking about launching driverless automated vehicles for transportation or supply chain vehicles. On the other hand, it is a big level of risk to rely upon automation. This result in a level of infrastructure development in the roads transit system. It has been estimated that almost 1 lakh drivers will be short by 2022. This is a big challenge for facilitating road transit system support. The sector is highly skilled and many employees who are drivers are getting aged who will no longer be doing that activity (Lin, et al. 2018).

Implications of Risk
The application of this is an opportunity for infrastructure and technology companies to launch automated vehicles and implicate automation up to a level of high vulnerability. That's why it is a risk because with the absence of highly skilled drivers, the investment and development of infrastructure in the road transit system will become less profitable and it will create economies on multiple scales.

Expected Scenarios (Two)
The two possible scenarios can be thought of in this situation.
Scenario 1: Due to the absence of drivers more pressure and requirement will come on young people for the motorist who is involved in delivery activities. That's why it has been found lately that more young people are becoming drivers of heavy vehicles in the last couple of decades. This is subject to risk and vulnerability on road safety. Scenario 2: the companies that were involved in transportation services or were based on heavy vehicles to transport their products will be resolved upon other means of transportation such as railways or airways. This will be a huge loss on the economy and taxation generated from road infrastructure and roadways.

Expected Outcome
The expected outcome of the scenarios is that there will be high implications and consequences of the shortage of drivers. Though a program for the road transit system might include special provisions and facilities for the people who choose a job such as driving. A whole new level of course and structure will be developed for training young and mid-aged people for this kind of job and increasing the level of skill and load or capacity required to carry out certain transportation activities. This means that drivers under this program will be given a greater level of responsibilities with the addition of experience and jobs they have done. This will ensure your development as well as the inculcation of drivers.

Event Tree Analysis
Considering the shortage of drivers and comprehending these evaluation measures from event tree analysis begins from the very top box the objective shortage of drivers. Further, it will have two daughters leaves and in one of them will be the cause and the second will be the effect. The cause will further define the ways or reasons due to which this situation is occurring and their effect will determine its implication. Father in each of them resolving procedures will be declared in consideration with the road transit system.

Risk: Deteriorating Infrastructure
The deterioration in infrastructure is another big concern which is of medium level risk and a medium level of impact. The lack of infrastructure and its poor quality has been witnessed many times in different forms. The most popular one is the wastage of time that people have to go through while driving on roads. On the other hand, the occurrences of accidents are based upon these. Many vehicles have suffered from poor performances or less durability due to the poor construction of the roadways and poor infrastructure. Due to the poor infrastructure of roadways, motorists and bikers get most affected by accidents (Wang, 2019).

Implications of Risk
The impact of risk associated with deteriorating infrastructure can be seen by the fuel cost of a country or the region. If the roads will be in proper order and infrastructure will be good then the vehicles will have more efficiency and better performance which will eventually decrease the cost of fuel and loss in energy. The better infrastructure will also facilitate an extensive level of saving in drive hours. Thus, the biggest risk associated with activating infrastructure is the unnecessary burden of fuel and wastage of time which has impacts of unprecedented and component level thereafter.

Expected Scenarios (Two)
The two scenarios that can be thought of in this situation are -
Scenario 1: if a motorist is carrying blood for someone who is in ICU at another district and he has to rush to reach there quickly. Then due to the poor infrastructure of the road, he gets into an accident himself which is the loss of his life as well as someone else's in such an emergency situation.

Scenario 2: Many people have been complaining of long traffic jams that have wasted hours and made them lose many pressures of a day on the road unnecessarily. If those hours can be saved then people would utilize it in some other productive work which will eventually help the economy to grow.

Expected Outcome
The expected outcome of both scenarios is that people will try to remain home as much as they want or can be. Even due to the advent of pandemic many organizations and employees have started working from home and continue to do so which will decrease the usage of vehicles as well as roadways infrastructure and somehow affect the economy as well.

Event Tree Analysis
The event tree analysis in this situation can be started by identifying the ways in which infrastructure has deteriorated. This can be well attested to the objective of understanding the usage of poor and bad materials in construction work or lack of maintenance activities. Further, this understanding will help in development of provisions and methodologies to be inculcated in the road transit system program so that these activities could be carried out in a monitored way. Apart from that the development of the roadways and its broadening should be done based on anticipated requirements or loads on the road.

Recommendations
While developing a program under RTS, one must comprehend and evaluate all types of risk and identify them as an opportunity to make system a lot better. The risks identified in this assessment demands the development of multiple things such as better network and robust security system to prevent cyberattacks, development of sophisticated technology but in a humane way, so that dependency could never be dissociated, facilitating infrastructural development that is well maintained and carried for a longer period of time, and finally training and hiring the young people, so that they could take more higher level of job after a good level of experience.

Conclusion
The objective of this assessment was to reassess the risks from the perspective of Decision Tree Analysis and Event Tree Analysis. Both of them employed to seek solution or risk control in an appropriate way. The purpose of administering this analysis to strategize risk control measures is to facilitate better performance of RTS PMS program.

References
Lin, T., Liu, X., Song, J., Zhang, G., Jia, Y., Tu, Z., Zheng, Z. and Liu, C., 2018. Urban waterlogging risk assessment based on internet open data: A case study in China. Habitat International, 71, pp.88-96. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S019739751730365X

Wang, D.D., 2019. Assessing road transport sustainability by combining environmental impacts and safety concerns. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 77, pp.212-223. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1361920919311186
Mineo, S., Pappalardo, G., D’urso, A. and Calcaterra, D., 2017. Event tree analysis for rockfall risk assessment along a strategic mountainous transportation route. Risk management assignment Environmental earth sciences, 76(17), pp.1-21. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12665-017-6958-1
Pal, R., Ghosh, A., Kumar, R., Galwankar, S., Paul, S.K., Pal, S., Sinha, D., Jaiswal, A.K., Moscote-Salazar, L.R. and Agrawal, A., 2019. Public health crisis of road traffic accidents in India: Risk factor assessment and recommendations on prevention on the behalf of the Academy of Family Physicians of India. Journal of family medicine and primary care, 8(3), p.775. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6482791/